Ukraine Launches Attack On Russia’s Oil Refinery

Over the past year, Ukraine has significantly escalated its campaign of drone strikes against Russia’s oil and energy infrastructure, a strategy aimed at disrupting Moscow’s war economy.¹ This new phase of the conflict has seen Ukrainian forces repeatedly hit major oil refineries and export terminals deep within Russian territory, causing substantial damage and leading to a range of economic and logistical challenges for Russia.²

Strategic Goals and Impact

Ukraine’s targeting of Russia’s oil refineries is a deliberate and calculated strategy with multiple objectives:³

1. Choking War Finances: Oil and gas revenues are a cornerstone of Russia’s economy, providing a crucial source of funding for its military operations.⁴ By attacking these facilities, Ukraine seeks to reduce Russia’s ability to refine and sell petroleum products, thereby cutting off a vital revenue stream.⁵
2. Creating Domestic Instability: The drone attacks have led to localized gasoline shortages and rising fuel prices in some regions of Russia.⁶ These disruptions are intended to create domestic pressure and undermine the Kremlin’s narrative of a stable, unaffected home front.
3. Stretching Russian Air Defenses: The sheer number and range of the drone strikes force Russia to divert its limited air defense systems from the front lines to protect its vast network of energy infrastructure.⁷ This creates a dilemma for the Russian military and exposes vulnerabilities across the country.
4. Demonstrating Capability: The successful strikes, some reaching facilities over a thousand kilometers from the Ukrainian border, showcase Ukraine’s growing capacity to produce and deploy long-range, domestically-developed drones.⁸ This serves as a powerful message to both Russia and Ukraine’s Western allies.

Key Targets and Consequences

The campaign has targeted a wide array of Russian oil facilities, including:

• Kirishi Refinery: One of Russia’s largest, located in the Leningrad region, this facility has been hit multiple times.⁹ Reports indicate that a recent strike significantly damaged a key processing unit, potentially reducing its operational capacity.¹⁰
• Novoshakhtinsk and Syzran Refineries: These facilities, among others, have also been successfully struck, contributing to a cumulative effect on Russia’s overall refining capabilities.
• Export Terminals: Ukraine has also targeted critical export hubs like the Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports on the Baltic Sea, causing temporary shutdowns and creating bottlenecks in the oil transportation system.¹¹

The cumulative effect of these attacks has been significant. According to various reports, the strikes have at times disabled a substantial portion of Russia’s total refining capacity, leading to a domestic fuel crisis and prompting Russia to temporarily ban gasoline exports to stabilize its internal market.¹²

While Russia has attempted to mitigate the impact by increasing crude oil exports and drawing on reserves, the attacks have exposed the vulnerability of its energy sector and forced a difficult choice between maintaining domestic fuel supplies and preserving export revenue. Ukrainian officials have framed the drone campaign as a form of “sanctions that work the fastest,” providing a direct and tangible economic disruption that traditional Western sanctions have sometimes struggled to achieve.¹³